Source: Economic Observer, Geng Huili
Production pictures of electric bicycle enterprises
After the emergency stop of lead-acid batteries, the impact is not only on the already large-scale E-bike industry, but also on the low-speed E-bike industry, which is in the embryonic stage and is still groping in the policy gray area.
In Shandong, where low-speed electric vehicles are concentrated, some enterprises have closed down due to insufficient battery supply. Li Shengmao, a consultant of CIC, predicts that after the upstream supply chain is tight, a large number of low-speed electric vehicle enterprises of "manual workshop" type will be forced to withdraw, and about 50 low-speed electric vehicle enterprises will survive.
With the support and appeal of many respected old experts, the low-speed electric vehicle with "unknown identity" is expected to have a clear identity and usher in its own industry standard. However, the supply of lead-acid batteries is tight, and the low-speed electric vehicle with low price will face the embarrassment of "lack of power" on the way to power.
1、 No rice in the pot
Due to the lead-acid battery pollution caused by excessive blood lead events in many places, the national environmental protection department is stopping production and rectifying the national lead-acid battery enterprises, and all the lead-acid battery enterprises that do not reach the 500 meter protection distance are shut down. As there are few lead-acid battery enterprises that meet this standard, the lead-acid battery industry fell into a state of shutdown in May. Due to tight supply, the price of lead-acid batteries also began to rise.
Some people in the industry expect that this round of environmental investigation will affect at least 50% - 60% of the production capacity of the national lead-acid battery industry.
In addition, the Ministry of environmental protection is working with relevant industry associations to formulate more stringent cleaner production specifications and related standards for batteries, and will eliminate enterprises that fail to meet the standards. Xu Hong, Secretary General of the lead-acid battery Professional Committee of China Electrotechnical Society, said in an interview that it is estimated that more than 1000 of the 2000 lead-acid battery enterprises in China will be eliminated. According to the preliminary estimation of the Ministry of environmental protection, less than 300 enterprises may remain.
According to Professor Chen Quanshi, it is no surprise that the state has shut down lead-acid battery enterprises on a large scale. From what he knows, the government departments had such plans two or three years ago“ Originally, I wanted to rectify in 2008, but when I met the economic crisis, I was worried that a large-scale rectification would aggravate the local economy. The lead-acid battery enterprises, electric bicycles and tricycle enterprises in many parts of Jiangsu and Zhejiang were very intensive, so it was postponed. "
Low speed electric vehicle enterprises are also psychologically prepared for this day“ In the past two years, the state has said that it will issue new standards for electric bicycles. We also think that the state will strengthen the management of low-speed electric bicycles in the future, but we didn't expect that the standards for low-speed electric bicycles have not yet come out. We should start with the battery link first. " Shandong, a low-speed electric vehicle enterprise sales director Zhao said.
According to Zhao, the quotation of battery suppliers has increased by 20%“ Even so, it may not guarantee supply. Most of the battery companies have stopped production, and they don't know when they can resume production. A small number of overseas orders that can still be produced are too busy. "
As far as Zhao knows, some of the surrounding electric vehicle enterprises have closed down because of the lack of battery supply. Zhao's enterprises also rely on the original inventory, but they can't meet the orders“ Since June, we have started to reduce production. If the battery enterprises do not resume production, they may face no rice in July and August. We can only take one step and see one step. "
2、 Moving forward in dispute
In recent years, low-speed electric vehicle enterprises have sprung up all over the country because they are optimistic about the development prospect of electric vehicles. Most of these enterprises are private enterprises, which originally produced electric bicycles, tricycles, agricultural vehicles and auto parts. Low cost and low speed are the main means for these private enterprises without vehicle production qualification and in the policy gray area to expand the market. For a low-speed electric vehicle, the lowest price is more than 20000 yuan, and the highest price is only 40000-60000 yuan. Because the products are cheap, the products of these enterprises mostly use lead-acid batteries.
Li Shengmao said that at present, the battery cost of low-speed electric vehicle enterprises is mostly controlled at the level of 8000 to 10000 yuan. Only lead-acid batteries can meet such low cost. If the NiMH battery is used, the price of the battery alone will exceed 20000 yuan, and the price of the lithium battery will be higher.
No one can say clearly the number of low-speed electric vehicle enterprises in China. "Many small enterprises are manual workshops, unlike vehicle enterprises, which have production qualification and product catalog to check, and can't make statistics. At present, there are dozens of investors with strength and investment scale. " Li Shengmao said.
Low speed electric vehicle enterprises are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, Henan, northeast, Hebei and other places also have many enterprises involved in low-speed electric vehicles. Shandong alone has more than 50 low-speed electric vehicle enterprises with a total capacity of about 200000 vehicles per year.
According to information disclosed by Shandong provincial government, last year, Shandong Shifeng group and other 18 enterprises produced 29731 low-speed electric cars, up 74.3% year on year. The province is expected to sell more than 60000 low-speed electric vehicles this year.
Although the enterprises that actively enter these fields all claim that they are making "energy-saving and environmental friendly" electric vehicles, their environmental protection color has been questioned by the outside world because most of them use lead-acid batteries. In addition, because the enterprises producing low-speed electric vehicles do not have the vehicle production qualification, can not be licensed, and can not be sold nationwide like cars. Moreover, due to different enterprise backgrounds, product technology level and quality are uneven, there have been opposition voices all the time. They think that this kind of product technology level is not high and it is not easy to supervise, and if it is not done well, it will be staged again The regulatory problems of electric tricycles.
Although there are many doubts, many old experts, such as Chen Qingquan, an expert on electric vehicles and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, have been calling for "opening up one side of the net", believing that low-speed small electric vehicles are suitable for the travel needs of the majority of rural residents in China, and the technical difficulty is not high, and the industrial foundation is good. If we specify standards and strengthen supervision, we can create China's own electric vehicle road. In March this year, Xu Guanhua, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chen Qingtai, former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, and Wu Jinglian, a famous economist, went to Shandong Shifeng group to conduct a survey. They said that it is a general trend to pilot low-speed small electric vehicles, and low-speed small electric vehicles are a good breakthrough for China to develop electric vehicles.
3、 The beginning of the norm
Li Shengmao estimates that after this round of large-scale environmental investigation, a large number of lead-acid battery enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards will be eliminated. In the future, the environmental protection standards for production and recycling of lead-acid battery enterprises will be more stringent, and the price of lead-acid battery will inevitably increase. Downstream electric bicycles, low-speed electric vehicles and other enterprises will also be greatly affected.
"In the past, we relied on low prices to attract consumers without considering environmental protection. In the future, this road will not work. There is no technology and strength. Those small handicraft enterprises that only rely on low prices to expand the market will be forced to withdraw. Only those enterprises that have the strength to invest and can achieve a certain scale can survive. At present, there are only about 50 such enterprises in China." Li Shengmao said.
In Chen Quanshi's view, eliminating a number of small enterprises without technology is a good thing for the future development of low-speed electric vehicles“ In the past, the threshold was too low. You can buy some batteries, find a few workers and knock them by hand. There will be many problems in this development. In the future, the threshold will be raised and some products and enterprises without technical content will be eliminated, which is conducive to the healthy development of the whole industry. "
At present, the competent authorities of the automobile industry are working out the technical standards for low-speed electric vehicles, and considering the pilot of low-speed electric vehicles in some areas.
Shandong Province, which is actively developing low-speed electric vehicles, is also formulating Pilot Measures for low-speed electric vehicles, selecting key enterprises, and strengthening the management of low-speed electric vehicles.
